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Jun 7 17 4:33 PM
ongrau wrote:ENTERING OR EXITING A RECESSION.This topic on its' surface seems like a simple concept, you see a recession coming and sell and make profits; you see a recession ending you buy at low prices and then ride them back up.In every recession I can remember the majority of investors (common folks) got caught with their pants down and many of the traders (investment professionals) had the same experience.Government indicators of the economy are trailing indicators. When we receive the data it may be a month or more old.Another way of putting it is that we are usually entering or exiting a recession before us common folk get the word.There are all kinds of advice floating around concerning the signs of a downturn and advising people to sell this or buy that amount of stock and other tactics to avoid being caught off guard when the economic cycle changes.We have advisors every day that predict the collapse and the rise of the market and also advise people to buy gold and silver. They usually want you to subscribe to their advisory service or news letter. I can't comment on their quality because I have never used them.There are some empirical observations that one can make that provides some indication of how the economy is going:INDICATORScar salesHome salesunemployment levelJobs added this period.Consumer spendingInterest rates present and long term (Watch the fed)Watch the general performance of foreign markets (Bloomberg TV)watch the volume of the market and look for spikes, uncertainty, and unexplained rises.The commercial traders mutual funds and such are market movers because of their billions of dollars of assets they trade. When the volume goes through the roof either up or down they are usually involved and they have good intelligence why they are buying or selling.If you really want to get into checking out the state of the economy go to:The Bureau of economic analysis website. They have reams of technical data about the economy and you can research as little or as much as you wish.THE FIVE TOP STOCKS MILLIONAIRES OWNGoogleAmazon.comAppleMicrosoftVanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)Five star fundFees: .04 This equals 4.00 per $10000.00 very low.Check it outThe stocks above are from Kiplinger Magazine. This an excellent financial magazine and I subscribe to it and highly recommend it for a reliable source financial information.The questions today is given the current financial climate:a. What should the ratio of stocks to bonds be in your portfolio? ANSWER; Depends upon your age, time until retirement. and risk tolerance. The older you become the ratio should shift with more bonds and less stock.b. Should one own bonds right now? I think they have a place in every diversified portfolio.c. If the answer is yes should the bonds be short, medium, or long term bonds. The fed is going to raise rates twice this year they say. Based on this short or medium term bonds would be appropriateI hope some of this helps you.I am not a financial advisor , and have 0 training in this area. What I write here is based on my experience and may not be true in every case.If you seek out financial advice find a professional CFP or the equivalent. They are usually excellent;;ent in this area.
Jun 7 17 5:31 PM
SirVivor wrote:Amazon is at 1K per share. I am considering buy $100,000 worth. Am I crazy or is there no end in sight.
Jun 8 17 8:47 AM
nickfuhs wrote:SirVivor wrote:Amazon is at 1K per share. I am considering buy $100,000 worth. Am I crazy or is there no end in sight.
CharlieUnless you have an investment portfolio well notth of 2 million, putting that signifivant a percentage of your assets in one stock is nuts
Jun 8 17 5:49 PM
SirVivor wrote:nickfuhs wrote:SirVivor wrote:Amazon is at 1K per share. I am considering buy $100,000 worth. Am I crazy or is there no end in sight.
CharlieUnless you have an investment portfolio well notth of 2 million, putting that signifivant a percentage of your assets in one stock is nutsCame into some extra cash and I have to find a fairly conservative place
to park it. Just a consideration and I welcome opinions.Charlie
Jun 8 17 6:03 PM
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